John Robb at globalguerillas.typepad.com tell it like it is...

HOLLOW STATES vs. FAILED STATES
A considerable number of analysts contend that Mexico and other countries suffering assaults by open source insurgencies/crime aren't in danger of becoming failed states. They are right given the limitations of their modeling. A failed state is a complete breakdown in the delivery of political goods (security, law, health, education, infrastructure, etc.), the dissolution of most arms of the government (often what's left is in absentia), and widespread chaos. Think Somalia.

In contrast, these states are well on the road to becoming hollow states. A hollow state is different from a failed state in that it continues to exist on the international stage. It has all the standard edifices of governance although most are heavily corrupted and in thrall to global corporate/monied elites. It continues to deliver political goods (albeit to a vastly diminished group, usually around the capital) and maintains a military. Further, in sections of the country, there is an appearance of normal life.

However, despite this facade, the hollow state has abdicated (either explicitly as in Lebanon's case or de facto as in Mexico's) vast sections of its territory to networked tribes (global guerrillas). Often, these groups maintain a semblance of order, as in rules of Sao Paulo's militias or the Taliban's application of sharia. Despite the fact that these group control/manipulate explicit economic activity and dominate the use/application of violence at the local level, these groups often grow the local economy. How? By directly connecting it to global supply chains of illegal goods -- from people smuggling to drugs to arms to copytheft to money laundering.


The longer this state of affairs persists, the more difficult it is to eradicate. The slate of alternative political goods delivered by these non-state groups, in contrast to the ineffectiveness of the central government, sets the stage for a shift in legitimacy. Loyalties shift. Either explicitly through membership in tribal networks, or acknowledgement of the primacy of these networks over daily life.


So, if the question is whether Mexico, Pakistan, Nigeria, etc are in danger of becoming hollow states, the answer is yes. In fact, I suggest that they are already there. Are we headed in the same direction?